No fresh start in Banja Luka: How Dodik pulls the strings from behind the scenes
Republika Srpska
is one of the two entities (constituent republics) that together form the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (the other being the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina). It was established following the Bosnian War through the 1995 Dayton Agreement.
What is the situation there?
The region is heavily influenced by Serb nationalist currents. In recent years, it has frequently made international headlines because its leadership—most notably the long-standing Bosnian Serb strongman Milorad Dodik—has repeatedly triggered massive political crises through talk of secession, the rejection of state-level institutions for Bosnia as a whole, and close ties to Russia (and Hungary).
Has things quieted down since Dodik left office?
In the summer of 2025, Milorad Dodik was definitively convicted by the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina for defying decisions made by the international High Representative; consequently, the Central Election Commission removed him from his post as president. Presidential elections followed, resulting in the election of Siniša Karan (also from Dodik’s SNSD party) as his successor.
However, despite the change in leadership at the helm of the entity, one cannot speak of a fundamental calming of the situation:
Continuity in party politics: Siniša Karan belongs to the same party (SNSD). The political orientation and rhetoric of the leadership in Banja Luka have not fundamentally changed.
Structural conflicts: Fundamental disputes regarding the architecture of the state as a whole, the powers of the central government, and the status of Republika Srpska persist.
Influence from the background: Even though Dodik has lost his official presidential office, he remains a powerful player in the political background and through his party. In summary, Dodik’s forced departure marked a historic and legal turning point, yet it has not led to any perceptible easing of tensions or a change of course in the policy of Republika Srpska.
Concept by Studio 4 Beograd
